Just answered a similar question for another MND reader, Sunny, you may want to take a look at that. Your risk tolerance is the big question, along with making sure that you will still qualify for the loan, even at higher rates. It may also make sense to at least look at the costs for a buy down to lower the rate, ask your originator about whether paying any discount points would be in your best interest.
My advice is to lock. There is no crystal ball, but most experts are recommending a lock position if your loan is closing within 45-60 days. Also, make sure to ask your lender if they are able to “renegotiate” your rate if they happen to drop before you close. Many lenders offer this service.
Float downs are typically for longer term locks (ie: a 60 day lock with float down option). I am unaware of any lender who offer float downs on 30 day locks, guess it’s possible, but in 13 years haven’t run across it yet.